Google Voice vs. Survey App

I think voice recognition, especially when combined with dynamic, data-driven systems is a Big Thing. That said, we have a long way to go as demonstrated by this slightly edited Google Voice transcript of its interaction with an automated survey app from a car dealer:

We are calling on behalf of <dealer> to. Sorry I didn’t hear that. Please listen for instructions following this message. We are calling on behalf of <dealer> to ask a few questions about the quality of service you received. There are 5 questions and it should only take a minute of your time. Please answer yes or no to the following question when arriving for service where you graded greeted promptly. Sorry I didn’t hear that. Please say yes or no, when arriving for service where you graded greeted promptly. Sorry I didn’t hear that. Please Press 1 for Yes, or two for no. Sorry i’m having such a difficult time understanding you. Would you like to continue? Please Press 1 for Yes, or two for no. Sorry I didn’t hear that. Would you like to continue? Please Press 1 for Yes, or two for no. Sorry i’m having such a difficult time understanding you. You can contact us AT (508) ***-**** We appreciate your time and thank you for choosing <dealer> goodbye.

I wish more startups were doing cool things with voice and speech rec, especially now that services like Twilio are available..

Posted in startups | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

The next reincarnation of cloud computing

Over Memorial Day weekend I wanted to play with CrunchBase data. I wrote a quick bash script that pulled data from CrunchBase and put it in MongoDB, one of the new databases from the NoSQL movement. In the process, I noticed I was programming file operations. It was a strange feeling. The last time I wrote code that manipulated files was a decade ago. For other projects, the data has been either in a database or a web service somewhere. Why would I put anything in a file? For that matter, why would I want to deal with hardware constructs such as network ports? For an application developer, as opposed to an infrastructure developer, all these vestiges of decades-old operating system architecture add little value. In fact, they cause deployment and operational headaches—lots of them. If I had taken almost any other approach to the problem using the tools I’m familiar with I would have performed HTTP operations against the REST-based web services interface for ChrunchBase and then used HTTP to send the data to MongoDB. My code would have never operated against a file or any other OS-level construct directly.

This experience got me thinking about the evolution of application development and that led to a guest post on Om Malik’s GigaOm on the migration of cloud computing from infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) to platform-as-a-service (PaaS).

Most assume that server virtualization as we know it today is a fundamental enabler of the cloud, but it is only a crutch we need until cloud-based application platforms mature to the point where applications are built and deployed without any reference to current notions of servers and operating systems.

As I mention in the post, I’m quite impressed with VMWare’s willingness to push forward in this direction. Listening to Paul Maritz, CEO of VMWare, speak at Structure, it’s clear he’s aiming very far and has the leadership potential to get there. More than a decade ago, I used to listen very carefully to what he said because he owned several large groups inside Microsoft, some of which loved my first startup (Allaire) because we pulled through many thousands of Windows & SQL servers and some of which hated us because we had the best Web development environment on Windows. He’s back on the list of execs I’ll follow carefully.

This is a big opportunity for Amazon to go up the stack at the right time. It’s good from an economics standpoint as it can increase margins in two ways: (a) improves efficiency and (b) switches pricing to more value-based application-related metrics. AWS has gone up the stack into data storage,  management and analytics. I doubt they’d miss the opportunity to become a meaningful PaaS provider at the right time. Breadth of platform support and platform expertise will be interesting challenges to resolve.

The other interesting trend to watch for here is that a reduction in the capabilities of the server virtualization tier increases the value of intelligent networks, one reason why Cisco smartly grabbed @lewtucker as CTO of their emerging cloud group and has security gurus like @Beaker on board.

The comments have raised several questions:

  • Is security harder with PaaS? In the short run, yes, but only because we have less experience with shared hosting on locked down PaaS platforms. Google App Engine, Heroku and others are leading the way here. Werner Vogels said that he trusts hypervisors to provide isolation. It will take a while for big cloud providers such as AWS to equally trust PaaS implementations. In fact, it’s likely they’ll build their own as Google has. Cisco badly wants to help, too.
  • How does IT rebill in enterprises? Having a simpler hypervisor or no hypervisor at all doesn’t mean you can’t collect HW usage metrics and decide how to apportion them to simultaneous users of the hardware. Even better, you can measure and rebill based on other, more business-value-oriented metrics which could give the IT organization some budgetary slack. It would certainly give them more deployment flexibility both inside and outside of their data centers.

Soon we will be able to throw away the server virtualization crutch and, like in that memorable moment from Forrest Gump, we will be able to run leaner and more scalable applications in the cloud on next-generation platforms-as-a-service. For the time being, my call to action is for application developers to stop writing code that directly touches any hardware or operating system objects and try the current generation of platforms-as-a-service.

Developers out there building applications, give me a shout about when was the last time you programmed against a file.

Let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @simeons.

Posted in amazon web services, cloud computing, SaaS | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

iPhone economics, startup economics, angel investing economics

Tomi Ahonen has collected a lot of good data about the iPhone app ecosystem and applies solid analysis to reach the conclusion that, from an economic standpoint, on average, it is a waste of developers’ time to build iPhone apps. The data is good but the conclusion is dubious.

This is a case study for the classic “How to Lie with Statistics,” in this case by accident. It’s like asserting that because, from an economic standpoint, on average, startups can’t raise money and startups fail it follows that entrepreneurs should pack up their bags and stop starting new companies and stop trying to raise money. Or that, because so few make it to pro sports and even there the injury rate is so high, high school and college students should stop trying to go pro. Or, as Freakonomics told it, drug dealers should quit the biz.

Well, there are many who feel this way but the ranks of founders, pro sports wannabes and corner dealers are growing. There are several things going on here…

Almost everyone learns about basic stats metrics such as averages and medians in the context of commonly-observed and often symmetric distributions such as the normal distribution. They make a lot of sense there. Applying them to a highly asymmetric distribution, such as iPhone app revenues or startup founder returns, without even knowing the shape of the distribution because granular data is not available, is likely to mislead the common reader. I know this because I’ve spent a couple of months studying angel returns and trying to separate reality from urban legend. More on this later.

From startups to pro sports to gambling, it is very human to pursue large statistically unlikely returns. Differently from gambling, as one invests more time in startups and sports, one hopefully gets better. And differently from sports where one gets only a couple of chances to go pro, startups don’t have this restriction. A serial entrepreneur can do many startups. In the process the entrepreneur hopefully becomes smarter, learns from past successes and mistakes and developers a bigger & better network, thereby improving the odds of success next time.

Repeat play is particularly important in games where the chances of success in any given game are very small. This includes both starting companies and joining companies as employees. If you are hot stuff, you are move likely to land a job at a hot startup.

Here is an example from angel investing based on data I’ve been looking at data recently: 68% of all angel investors lose all their money, primarily because they do too few investments. A change in portfolio size from 5 to 10 investments and 5 to 25 investments increases return at the beginning of the top quartile by 54% and 200%, respectively.  (The angel at the beginning of the top quartile has better returns than 75% of angels and worse returns than 25% of angels.) The distribution of angel returns is surely not similar to similar to iPhone apps so the example is purely illustrative.

Then there is the fact that many iPhone app developers build apps while having other jobs that provide cash, in many cases more than a typical developer salary because mobile development skills are in short supply. Therefore, we should be comparing expected returns from startup equity to expected returns from iPhone app development. It is a lot easier to start an iPhone app company than many other types of companies. Therefore, we should not be comparing the return on founding equity of a startup backed by high-quality angels and VCs. Instead, we should be comparing the differences in net cash together with the return on equity that non-founders get. I don’t have great data on this but from what I know I’d argue that, outside of lasting bubble markets, non-founders and non-execs don’t make that much on equity.

Last but not least, economics is not the whole story. Some people fall in love with code and startups. It gives them a sense of purpose and a way to express their creativity. With iPhone apps where it often takes a developer or two to build a basic app, entrepreneurs also get a lot of control and a higher likelihood of calling the shots as a CEO or an exec. I have several friends who are doing iPhone apps because they can be their own boss through a combination of consulting and self-employment. They could be founders and even execs at other startups but it’s unlikely that’ll be CEOs.

To recap, Tomi’s analysis uses good data and good reasoning but it misses the forest for the trees. This doesn’t mean everyone should pile on the mobile app bubble. My point is simply that this type of by-the-numbers analysis misses the point of why so many have gotten into mobile development.

Let me know what you think in the comments or at @simeons.

Posted in Apple, iPhone, Mobile, startups | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Repurchase agreements: what you should know before you sign

This is the second guest post from Dave Broadwin, head of the Emerging Enterpise Center at Foley Hoag LLP, in the area of founding agreements. Part one is on vesting and the other related posts are on improving the performance of founding teams, founder agreements and strategies for dealing with poorly performing co-founders.

Back by request, a post on repurchase rights and related concepts.  These concepts pertain more to companies that are not venture financed than to companies that are venture financed.  Why?  Because when VCs invest, they cover off all these concepts in their basic investment docs.

The issue sets up like this:  You and three friends (Mark, Luke and John) decide to form a company to found a new social network.  You have checked out what Sim Simeonov has to say about vesting, so you figure you have it knocked – until you go talk to your lawyer.

The first words out of his mouth are, “Well Matthew, what if Mark, Luke or John leaves the company and goes to the dark side?  What if one of them becomes disabled or dies or gets a divorce or goes bankrupt?  You might find yourself with a partner you don’t want.”

There are a number of ways of dealing with these issues.  They begin with transfer restrictions, move on to repurchase rights and obligations, go through a process for determining the purchase price and end up with an agreement around payment terms.  So let’s take the tour.

The tour is all about how to anticipate and prepare for the situation in which one of your co-founders leaves the business.  The far more common situation is that the founders come to a parting of the ways or they need to reallocate equity for reasons of nonperformance or noninvolvement and there is no agreement in place.  So, first a few words about that.

Equity Reallocation Without an Agreement

In my last guest post, I suggested that perhaps you would need a prescription for Nexium in these circumstances.  I repeat my suggestion.

In the absence of an agreement, you are going to have either a negotiation or you are going to have to dilute the departing or non-performing founder (or consultant or whatever).  It is hard to imagine a circumstance in which a negotiated result is not going to serve you best over time.  So, unless something about the situation or your lawyer’s advice dictates otherwise, your best course of action may be to have a come-to-Jesus meeting with the other person and explain what you want (i.e. a give up of equity either in the form of a simple contribution back to the company or a sale at some low price) and why it makes sense for the company as a whole and, therefore, for the other person as a shareholder.  If that works, go for a release while you are at it.  Your lawyer can help you with that too.

If the negotiated route does not work, you are going to be looking for ways to dilute the former founder.  Anything you might do here is fraught with potential corporate law and tax law consequences.  You should not start issuing shares or options without legal advice.  Just to make the point, if you issue yourself a bunch of shares, that could be taxable income.  Also, issuing shares at less than fair market value could be a breach of the fiduciary duty of directors and could expose them to a lawsuit from the disgruntled party.

All this, of course, argues that you should be prepared lest you end up in founder Purgatory or worse founder Hell.  So, now at long last, the tour:

Transfer Restrictions

Most stockholder agreements begin with the same basic commandment, thou shalt not “sell, assign, gift, loan, pledge, mortgage, hypothecate (that one sounds ominous), distribute, encumber, or otherwise transfer or dispose of “ thy shares, unless … There are really two points here.  First, you really can’t sell (etc.) your shares to anybody under any circumstances.  Second, is the stuff that follows the word “unless.”

“Unless” is usually followed by a variety of exceptions to the principle of no sale.  These exceptions include some, or all, of the following:  (1) pursuant to a bona fide purchase offer from an arms-length third party after first providing the company and/or the other stockholders a right of first refusal, (2) pursuant to bona fide estate planning (with the proviso that the recipients remain subject to the basic transfer restriction), (3) upon death or disability, (4) pursuant to a divorce decree or (5) upon bankruptcy.

Think about it this way:

Mark can sell his shares to Satan, but only after giving the company and the other Apostles a chance to buy them (usually on the same terms and conditions as offered by Satan).  Sometimes you see flat out prohibitions on sales to competitors.

Luke can put his shares in a trust for anyone he begets, but if he does that, the begotten can’t make further transfers unless they comply with the basic transfer restrictions.  Same result if Luke dies or becomes disabled and the shares go to some trust or other.

If John gets a divorce, then the shares can be transferred by court order in the divorce.  There is not much you can do about that, except get the spouse so sign something beforehand or provide for repurchase by the company and the other stockholders pursuant to some fair valuation.  Similar issue if John goes bankrupt (only the bankruptcy court has even more control than a divorce court).

Repurchase Rights and Repurchase Obligations

A departing stockholder may be required to sell and/or the surviving stockholders may be required to buy the stock of the departing stockholder.  This type of arrangement has the following results:

  • It may provide liquidity to the departed, depending on the price per share
  • It permits the surviving to retain 100% of the ownership
  • It prevents undesirables from becoming stockholders

You can also mix and match.  Under some circumstances you may want repurchases to be mandatory and not under others.  For example, stockholders often want repurchases to be mandatory upon death or disability because they foresee the need for liquidity.  Sometimes they want the right to be optional in the case of a sale to a third party because they don’t want the company (or themselves) to be obliged to make a payment they can’t afford but they need the security that they can prevent a sale to a competitor.  You want to consider the needs of the company and the stockholders to decide what works for you.

What is the Purchase Price?

There are probably as many ways of setting a price as there are people wanting to set one.  However, there are some that can be described as typical or usual.  In any event, they are more common than others.  These are (1) in the case of rights of first refusal, the price set by a bona fide third party offeror, (2) formula pricing, (3) appraisal, and (4) the mutual option method.  Sim has pointed out to me that he sometimes sees 409(A) valuations used to determine fair market value in shareholder agreements that apply to many shareholders.  While I can’t say that I have seen this done, I can see that it could have great appeal.  You will have an objective third party valuation.  However, these valuations sometimes seem low.  So, representing a senior exec, I might go for something else.

In the case of rights of first refusal, the right is always (almost always) the right to preempt the proposed purchase by a third party.  It seems inherently unfair to set the price at a number different from that which a bona fide willing third party has offered.  Enough said on this one.

Formula pricing offers the illusion of objectivity in the guise of ease of calculation.  Typical formulas are things like multiples of revenue or EBITDA or even, sometimes, book value.  Formulas can, and do, work well in situations where the company is well-established in an industry where companies typically sell on some established basis such as a multiple of EBITDA.  Having said that, this approach may not (almost certainly won’t) work for early stage companies or technology companies where there is real value in the technology.  If a company has no revenue, it will not have positive EBITDA or, frankly, any other balance sheet number that can be used in a formulaic way to set value.  But, this is not to say that the company has no value.  For example, the exclusive right to sell indulgences may not have achieved revenue, but it sure could have value.

Once you give up on formulas, the typical fall back is appraisal.  In my experience, clients like to go with a neutral knowledgeable outsider such as an investment banker to do the appraisal.  There are various methods of choosing the banker such as the parties agreeing or if they can’t agree after some amount of time, each picks one banker and the two so chosen pick a third banker who does the valuation.  This method can, of course, be expensive since the banker has to be paid.  Another possibility is that the independent directors (if there are any) pick.  I have even seen baseball arbitration used in this context.

A final method that I mention because it is used more often than I ever expect (which is not to say that it is used all that often) is the mutual option.  The way this works is that, at a stated time, either party may set a valuation and the other party may then elect to either sell at that valuation or buy at that valuation.  For example, in a simple case where there are only two founders, Luke and John, one founder, Luke, sets the valuation and the other founder, John, elects whether to be a buyer or a seller at that valuation.  If Luke sets the valuation too low, John will buy out Luke but if Luke sets the valuation too high, John will sell out to Luke.   This method pushes people to pick reasonable valuations because the risk giving away the store if they don’t.  It has other drawbacks, however, for one, it is difficult to make work if there are more than two parties.  For another, it favors the financially stronger party.  If one party can’t come up with the money to be a buyer, then they are likely to end up selling at a low valuation either because they themselves are constrained to pick low valuations or because the counter party figures it out and is artful about how they set the valuation.

In the End: Payment

In the case of rights of first refusal, usually payment must be made in the same manner as that which the third party buyer has proposed.  On occasion, however, thoughtful entrepreneurs take into account the possibility that a large sum could have to be paid in a short time frame and provide some sort of payout mechanism in the stockholder agreement.

Unlike the situation with a right of first refusal, in the case of appraisal and other valuation methods, the payment method should be set forth in the stockholders’ agreement.  Usually the stockholders agree on some portion to be paid at a closing and the rest to be paid over time.  Often the timed payment is in the form of a note that bears interest and may, or may not, be secured.

Dealing with Disputes

Needless to say, when these situations come into play, there are many opportunities for disputes.  It is hard to say anything good about disputes and how to resolve them.  Disputes among founders are almost always fraught with emotion.  This makes them very intractable.  Many people have tried to find cheap and easy ways to resolve disputes.  These ideas sometimes make it into shareholder agreements.  The typical approach is some form of non-binding mediation for some period of time followed by binding arbitration.  A lot of clients are of the view that this process will be less costly and less time consuming than a court proceeding.  They may be right, but it is really hard to know.  Also, there is the belief, which may not be correct, that arbitrators tend to compromise, compared to courts that just decide who is right and who is wrong, thereby reducing risk to all parties.  Again, this may or may not be true.  I am not aware of any objective evidence one way or the other.  Just to give you a rough sense, our firm handled litigation between founders, one of whom was a client of mine, that went all the way through a bench trial (it was tried before a judge and not a jury).  The cost for our client, who won the case in its entirety, was just under $250,000.  We handled a different case, also for one of my clients, where we hired a solo practitioner in California to handle the arbitration.  He agreed to take the case on a contingent fee basis.  Again, we won a sweeping victory.  The contingent fee lawyer got one third of $2million and this was on top of our hourly fees, which were trivial by comparison.  Keep in mind these are the costs of the winners.  There were approximately equal costs on the other side, and they both lost and paid material fees.

As you can see, my experience is that neither method, arbitration or lawsuit, is cheap or easy.  While I also believe that judges and arbitrators actually believe (and behave as if) they are in the business of delivering a just and fair result, irrational things creep into both processes and can affect the results.  For these reasons, I often advise clients that it is in their best interests to find a compromise before getting into a formal dispute resolution process.  Not to be too flip, I actually often tell clients that if everyone is equally unhappy with the result, then it was probably the right result.

One more piece of advice, and this is certainly self-serving, if you really are going to go all the way to trial (or its arbitration equivalent), don’t be penny wise and pound foolish, hire a good lawyer with experience in the type of dispute you are dealing with.  You will be dealing with enough risk; don’t add an inexperienced attorney to the mix.

As far as I know, Matthew, Mark, Luke and John are still together enjoying the fruits of their labor in heaven.  I don’t know what your chances of getting to heaven are but your chances of avoiding Hell are better if you think about and deal with founder issues at the beginning than if you don’t.

Let us know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @simeons and @broadwin.

Posted in startups, VC, Venture Capital | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Platforms, Feds, Ads

In trying to write a focused post on the threat of government regulation Apple is facing, I didn’t mention an area I’m personally very interested in from the standpoint of Better Advertising: Apple’s restrictions regarding data collection.

Section 3.3.9 of the Apple developer agreement prevents third party data collection from Apple mobile devices:

The use of third-party software in Your Application to collect and send Device Data to a third party for processing or analysis is expressly prohibited.

The advertising industry feeds on data. It also relies on being able to uniquely identify devices. My reading is that device identification data can no longer be sent, which will break analytics and will hurt advertisers by, for example, limiting their ability to do frequency capping accurately.

I see an easy work-around which is that analytics companies would provide APIs and “tutorial code” they put in the public domain on how developers can build their own client for feeding data into the third parties. It’s a trick to get around the restriction using a technicality. It’s lame but not as lame as the restriction.

I wonder what Apple’s argument is about why this makes sense?

Posted in Apple | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Does knowing C allow you to write more efficient programs?

In a thoughtful comment to my post analyzing Apple’s refusal to allow non-native apps–the ones built with Flash, .NET, any type of cross-compiler, etc.–on its devices, Andrew Martin argued:

I would argue that knowing a “lower-level” high-level language like C would help a developer write more efficient programs (regardless of how efficiently the compilation occurs). Of course this isn’t necessarily true in all cases

It’s an interesting point and, since it didn’t fit the discussion on the page, I moved it over here.

The argument that knowing a way to program at a lower level of abstraction helps you write more efficient programs is as old as programming. Assembly-language programmers said that to C programmers, C programmers said it to C++ programmers, Java programmers now say it to Ruby programmers, etc.

Efficiency is a complex metric with as many constituent parts as there are resources one cares about in a given situation: time, space (RAM, virtual memory, disk space), I/O, OS-level resources (processes, threads, handles, semaphores, ports, channels, …), etc. To understand the issues, one has to look at what aspects of a programming language affect efficiency (however this is defined). Some key factors are the built-in constructs, data structures, frameworks. For example, C++ templates allow for compile-time optimization that is practically impossible to replicate using C. An extreme example of this is template meta-programming, which I’ve had some great results with. The same is true of some Objective-C capabilities such as dynamic binding and message passing, which are not practically replicable in C. Another, and very different, example would be Flash which is very good at vector graphics, animation, etc. It doesn’t just have built in libraries that support this–its programming model, which includes things such as frames, and runtime environment, down to its bytecode architecture if I’m not mistaken, have special, optimized constructs that support these capabilities. Matching that using, say, Java would require excellent graphics/animation libraries and, even then, the fact that the JVM architecture is not optimized for vector graphics & animation may be a significant disadvantage.

Another factor, and reason why it is becoming less and less true that knowing a lower-level language helps a programmer write more efficient programs, is the quality of optimization, be that static (compile-time) or dynamic (run-time). People have a very limited ability to perform the type of optimizations software can. We don’t have the information management power to do static analysis (code & data flows as well as instruction/data layout) well and we tend not to have the time and skills to do dynamic analysis (profiling), especially when one considers the added complexities of such things as varying workloads, parallelism and predictive execution. Worse, our psychology drives us to premature optimization.

It is legitimate to ask what does the last point have to do with lower vs. higher-level languages since both are benefiting from better compilers. The answer lies in the division of responsibilities. In a lower-level language like C it is often much more difficult for a compiler to make big assumptions about the impact of code execution on data structures. In a higher-level language, the compiler and/or runtime environment have more responsibilities but that also allows them to do more because they, and not the developer, are in control and that gives them the flexibility to move data structures around, to parallelize without fear of race conditions and unsafe data structure access, to not recycle memory until necessary, etc. For example, a dynamically-optimizing garbage collector may beat C memory management, even if the C program is compiled using a dynamically optimizing compiler.

In the future, the main way to write more efficient programs that don’t just work through massive but relatively dumb parallelism will be to use programming models that maximize the expression of intent with the minimum of implementation-specific constraints, allowing the hardware and software around developers’ code to maximally help.

Let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @simeons.

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Apple vs. Adobe Flash

VentureBeat published an analysis I did of Steve Jobs’s Thoughts on Flash. As one would expect, the comments have been lively. Since I used to work at Macromedia, the creator of Flash, now part of Adobe, I wanted to share my broader perspective and biases in this matter:

  • I am a proponent of Web architectures and open standards. I was part of the founding team and chief architect of Allaire, the company that developed the first Web/HTML-centric application server, ColdFusion. ColdFusion ran on Windows, Solaris, HP/UX and Linux. I’ve worked on open standards at the W3C, OASIS and the Java Community Process, open-sourced WDDX and led a team that built key parts of the Apache Axis web services engine.
  • I’m weary of anyone having too much control. I grew up in Communism. Need I say more? This applies to government regulation because it tends to be designed by consensus and far less flexible than the future requires.
  • Eight years ago I was involved with Flash. After Allaire merged with Macromedia, I was chief architect at Macromedia and worked on initiatives that later became the MX platform and Flex, which is open-sourced under the Mozilla Public License.
  • I am agnostic with respect to technology. I learned programming on an Apple ][ clone in Bulgaria but I’ve never owned a Mac. My Windows laptops have Linux VMs on them. I use both Flash/Flex and HTML/CSS/AJAX. I love my iPad, iPhones and iPods for what they are great at but am frustrated by their sometimes arbitrary limitations and use a Verizon Blackberry as my work phone and an Android phone when I travel in Europe.
  • I know a bit about cross-platform mobile development, security and advertising. In addition to my work on programming models and runtime environments for the Web, I co-founded a mobile startup that built a cross-device runtime, which is how I learned about the core issues surrounding mobile platforms and mobile application performance. I also co-founded an advertising compliance company and helped start and invested in an application security company.
  • I deeply appreciate and admire Apple’s focus on design and UX. I wish Apple bought Tesla and started making cars. I don’t yet care about my car being open and hackable.
  • I don’t directly own AAPL, ADBE, GOOG or MSFT. I bet some of the funds I’m invested in have stakes in those companies.

Net of the friendships I have at Adobe, I have a reasonably educated and unbiased perspective.

Let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @simeons.

Posted in Adobe, Apple | Tagged , , , , | 7 Comments

Founder Agreements – Vesting, Vesting and more Vesting

startup stock certificateFollowing my posts on improving the performance of founding teams, founder agreements and strategies for dealing with poorly performing co-founders, I continue to receive many emails at FastIgnite from entrepreneurs having difficulties with managing and formalizing the relationships with their co-founders. I reached out to my blogger friend Dave Broadwin, head of the Emerging Enterpise Center at Foley Hoag LLP, and invited him to provide his perspective in a series of guest posts of which this is the first. (No, it’s not legal advice.) I hope you enjoy them and follow Dave’s writing.

Some time ago Sim Simeonov asked me to write a guest post on the subject of founder agreements.  For one reason or another it has taken a long time to get it done.  In part this is because I broke my leg skiing and in part it is because the number of founders walking through our doors these days seems to be on the rise.  So the very issues that Sim wanted me to write about have been taking up my time.

As Sim has pointed out in his two prior posts (Ten Rules for Better Founding Teams and Startup Founder Agreements), there are a lot of different types of contracts that founders have to enter into in the course of starting up a business.  Most of them, though, don’t give lawyers a lot of heartburn.  That is not to suggest that they are not important or that you should not pay attention to them, but from a lawyer’s point of view, there is not usually, a lot of controversy around NDAs and the like.  Having said that, Sim has mentioned that he routinely asks for changes in standard forms of NDA in the areas of information management, protection, destruction and return of information.  While it is true that most companies are very reluctant to make changes in employment related NDA (and other) forms which they ask all their employees to sign, it is also true that with the rise of the cloud and other factors, these forms may be at odds with the way information is actually handled.  If you have a legitimate point, most tech companies will hear it – so don’t be shy.

The shoals upon which founders founder, seems to me to be first and foremost, the allocation of equity among co-founders, and secondarily the use of equity to pay consultants and other people providing services in the early stages of the business.

I have said this elsewhere, but it almost seems like a rite of passage that founders give away too much equity to someone who later does not perform (and, often, who leaves the business to pursue some other job and wants to keep the equity).  Somehow you then have to get the toothpaste back in the tube.  This can be an ugly process.

Here is a very typical (perhaps I should say archetypal) fact pattern:  Sally wants to start a web based company.  She needs some coding done for her web page.  She meets Harry.  Harry is out of work (having been laid off from MondoHuge Software, Inc.).  Harry, who seems like a charming fellow, has the time and, apparently, the skills that Sally needs.  Moreover, Harry professes to have had his fill of big companies and is ready to launch an exciting new start-up.  So, for a mere 25% of the equity, Harry agrees to do all the coding and have the beta ready in six months.

Sally and Harry enter into an agreement (in the form of a letter that Sally sends to Harry without running it past her attorney, Clarence Darrow).  The letter says something to the effect of Harry will be in charge of software development and will be issued 25% of the common stock right away.  The letter says nothing about performance expectations or what happens if they are not met.  The performance expectations are all in Sally’s mind.  Sally never considers what might happen if Harry does not perform, let alone what might happen if he leaves the company.

Harry is issued a nice shiny new stock certificate.  Everything is cool for about two months.  Then Harry, who unbeknownst to Sally has been looking for a job all along, gets a job offer from Ginormous Software Corp.  He takes the job and tells Sally that he is moving to the west coast to run Ginormous’ new Flash division.

It turns out that Harry only wrote a few lines of code and is not planning to give back the stock, which he feels is his (since he is a co-founder).  Sally then calls Clarence ”How do I get the stock back?”  Although he uses other words, Clarence is thinking “I hope you are taking the little purple pill because heartburn is about to become a part of your life.”

Since an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, I am not going to write about how to negotiate with Harry under these conditions, rather I am going to write about the things you can do to avoid walking a mile (more like 40 miles) in Sally’s shoes.

To paraphrase the famous line from The Graduate “I have one word for you “vesting.’”

Sim has a lot of great things to say about vesting, but here is my take on it:

Every member of the team should be subject to vesting. Unless you are planning to go it alone, in which case who cares, every member of the team should be subject to some form of appropriate vesting.  Consider the divorce rate among practicing Catholics, and they are expecting to suffer eternal damnation if they break up.  Breaking up may be hard to do, but people do it a lot.  Like the Boy Scouts, Be Prepared, in case it happens to you.  If Sally had followed this policy, no matter how sure she thought she was about Harry, she would have been OK when he bolted.

Consider this, if Harry leaves with a big chunk of equity and won’t give all (or some) back, you are going to have to figure out how to dilute his position.  This means getting more stock into the hands of the remaining productive team members.  This topic is beyond the scope of this post, but you probably can’t just give everyone (other than Harry) a pile of new shares.  If you did, then everyone is likely to have phantom income equal to the value of the new pile of shares.  So, you have to consider options (which have other drawbacks).  You also have to consider the impact on your investors, if any, and what rights they have in connection with your issuance of shares and options.  Fixing the capitalization once the shares are issued and vested is hard to do.

Vesting should be part of an express agreement between the stockholder and the Company. No handshakes, vague understandings, or oblique references in emails, unless you plan to become part of AstraZeneca’s cash flow (they make the little purple pill).  Vesting can be made a part of a stockholder agreement signed by all stockholders.  One drawback of the collective approach is that it may be cumbersome or a diplomatic challenge to have different vesting schedules and arrangements for different stockholders.  Vesting can also be set forth (to use a lawyerly turn of phrase) in individual agreements.  This approach makes it easier to strike different deals with different people for whom different considerations might apply.  If Sally had a written agreement with Harry, she would not be looking for a scrip for the purple pill.

Immediate vesting is a bad idea.  By this I mean that all stock vests upon issuance.  The day after formation Harry gets to (a) keep all 25% and (b) leave for greener pastures.  Having said that, some level of immediate vesting is often appropriate.  For example, if the founders have been working part time for six months pulling the business together in their garage and they have real sweat in the business, a recognition of that contribution may be entirely appropriate.  This does not mean that everything should be fully vested right away.  Another common situation is when someone puts in actual money (in addition to sweat equity).  Stock that is bought and paid for probably should not be subject to vesting.

Time based vesting is often a good idea.  Time based vesting means that stock vests with the passage of time.  A very common scheme used in venture financed companies is four year vesting.  This typically has a one year cliff (after one year 25% is vested) and then three additional years during which stock (or options as is often the case in venture financed companies) vests ratable on a monthly or quarterly basis.  Companies that are not (or not yet) venture financed, often choose time based vesting in which stock vests ratable over three or four years beginning right away.  With this scheme, when Harry left to work for Ginormous, he would only have two months of vesting (way less than 25%).  One issue with time based vesting is that it does not take performance into account.  Often founders are reluctant to let people go, with the result that they time vest way longer than they should and they don’t deliver.

Milestone vesting is often a good idea.  With milestone vesting, stock vests upon achievement of stated milestones.  By way of example, 25% might vest upon shipment of beta with more vesting on final shipment and more on V2.0.  If Harry had agreed to milestone vesting, he would be leaving all his stock behind, which is probably the right outcome in the little morality play that this post is based upon.  One of the issues with milestone vesting is, of course, how clearly defined are the milestones.  If there is ambiguity around whether or not milestones have been reached then there can be disputes around that.  For example, if Harry is going to vest 25% on shipment of beta, maybe Harry will ship beta before it is really ready.  The only way to handle this issue that I have ever felt good about is to have very clear and unambiguous milestones.  The CEO of one of my clients has milestone vesting tied to specific revenue levels.  Now, you might think you either have the revenue or you don’t, but you can grow revenue by dropping price (and margin).  That is not what the board had in mind.  Now, in my client’s case it is working out because the CEO is not playing games, but not everyone could resist the temptation. Keep in mind, the company can play games too.  Unless you can find some measure that is truly clear and unambiguous, you reach a point where trust has to enter into the equation.  BTW, milestone vesting is also good for consultants and certain service providers.

Note that VCs usually insist on imposing vesting on founders in early stage investments (Series A).  Depending on a variety of factors a common approach is to let the founders have 25% to 50% fully vested and have the rest time vest over three years.  VCs see a lot more situations than you ever will.  There is a reason why they do this, even while they believe enough in the founder to invest millions.  Learn from them grasshopper.

Negotiation when you let someone go is the norm.  I have noted that often underperformers stay too long.  When you finally get around to terminating Harry, it could be before the cliff (assuming you have one) or after.  Particularly before the cliff (but it could be at any time) Harry is going to want to hang on to some options.  You should be aware that options are contracts, and like any contract, the option terms can be changed by agreement of the parties.  Option plans typically provide that an employee who is terminated, other than for cause, will have a period of time (usually 60 or 90 days) after termination to exercise vested options.  This means there must be some vested options and the employee has to be ready to stroke a check.  Sometimes neither is the case.  Rank and file employees typically have to live with the plan, whatever it says, but “senior” people often negotiate for some vesting and for a longer period of time to exercise.  I have not noticed that there is any standard length of time but perhaps a year is common for additional time to exercise.  Typically, the employee is looking for enough time for the company to reach some new valuation that will give the employee clarity as to the wisdom of exercising.  Also, with respect to the amount of vesting I have not noticed any “standards” – the senior employee gets what he or she negotiates.  My experience is that employees ask for the cliff (in a pre-cliff termination) and some portion of the remaining in a post-cliff termination.  Usually the company is willing to do something in a termination (other than for cause) and the negotiating space is not that great, so it is readily compromised.

Your board must approve option grants and changes to option terms.  This may be a technical point, but all option grants (including those promised to new employees when the come on board) and all changes to the terms of options (for example the negotiated changes that might happen on departure of a senior employee) must be approved by your board of directors.  The Delaware law reason for this is that you are, in effect, proposing to issue stock and that is the right of the board of directors.  For this reason, option grants in offer letters are often conditioned on board approval.  You must make sure you understand what your board will approve before you make offers.  Otherwise you could be embarrassed or worse.  From the employee’s perspective, you should get some assurance that the option grant will be considered by the board at its next meeting.  You might also want to get some assurance from whomever you are negotiating with that he or she has at least discussed the proposed grant with key board members and they are OK with it.

Once in a very dark blue moon, the bad thing happens: an employee or consultant is promised options subject to board approval and the board does not approve.  Consultants rarely protect themselves from this sort of thing.  I am not sure why – perhaps because they feel it is not diplomatic to suggest that they are not comfortable that the founder or CEO hiring them is not in sync with her board.  In any event, if you think you might find yourself in that position, you might suggest some alternative compensation that is not subject to board approval.  For example, in some cases CEOs have the authority to commit to signing bonuses.

As if that is not enough, investors (and this is absolutely true of VCs) negotiate for and obtain contractual restrictions on the issuance of options and the vesting and other terms upon which they can be issued.  Your grants must comply with your contractual agreements or you have to get a waiver from your investors.

The Internal Revenue Code will also have something to say about your grants.  I don’t want to go too far afield with tax stuff about qualified and nonqualified options, but I do want to note that Section 409(A) of the Internal Revenue Code has the practical effect of requiring that option grants be issued with an exercise price that is equal to or greater than fair market value on the date of grant.  If this stuff is of interest to you, check out Options and 409(A) – Sometimes the Law is an Ass.

Finally, and I hesitate to mention this because I am a lawyer and it will sound self-serving, but don’t be penny wise and pound foolish.  Consult with Clarence; have him review (preferably actually draft) the stockholder agreement.  It may be a sad life, but it is what he lives for.   In addition, he, like the VCs, sees a lot more deals than you ever will.

There are many other arrangements among founders having to do with stock and what happens if the founders come to a parting of the ways.  These include things like transfer restrictions, puts, calls, repurchase rights, mutual options and the various methods of valuation that go along with buying and selling stock.  These are beyond the scope of this post.  Also, they don’t typically apply to venture financed companies.  But, if there is sufficient indication of interest, I will write another post covering those items.

There will be more posts in Dave’s series on my blog. Let us know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @simeons and @broadwin.

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Picking the ideal market size for a startup

There may be some argument about this but I’ve read in a number of places that the fastest high-tech company to reach $1B in revenue was BEA Systems. How did they do it? They got big backers: a private equity firm called Warburg Pincus (incidentally, the firm behind Better Advertising, a company co-founded last year). BEA raised a lot of money. The first round was $26M. Upon launching they acquired several existing companies/products in quick succession: Information Management, Independence Technologies and Tuxedo. Later on they acquired WebLogic and many others. There is one other small detail: it was Bubble 1.0, the dawn of the Web. With all that cash, acquisitions and an environment where customers spent indiscriminately, it took them nearly six years to get to a $1B in revenue.

Look at it another way. Say your startup had $1M in revenue last year. It would take you five years of about 400% Y/Y growth to get to a billion. Well, you say, I don’t need to own the entire market, just be the gorilla. OK, to get to 30% of the market or $300M you’ll need over 300% Y/Y growth. To get “just” to $100M in five years takes 250% Y/Y growth starting from a million.

Statistically speaking, your startup is unlikely to grow this fast. And, statistically speaking, if you go about your business aiming to repeat the trajectories of outliers, such as BEA, you’ll end up in the dead pool.

The best early-stage entrepreneurs don’t care much about billion-dollar markets described by generic, fuzzy terms such as display advertising or consumer financial services. To them, such a market definition is an abstract notion, a vision to aim at, something to sell to investors and analysts. Investors and analysts love talking about multi-billion-dollar markets because it is easy to pontificate about the distant future using imprecise language. It requires but a vague understanding of technology, industry and customers.

What the best early stage entrepreneurs care deeply about are small, precisely-defined markets their companies can dominate. Very early on, they care about the one such market they will go after. They know that the antidote to being mediocre at many things is smart, pragmatic focus. In a startup, this automatically means not doing much and not caring much about a lot of things, such as the $123,456,789 of market opportunity your company is not going to go after this year while it’s tackling the precisely-defined market it cares about.

How big should your market be this year? Here is a simple way to guess at this:

  1. Take the important leadership metric (revenue, users, etc.) for your business.
  2. Decide where you want to drive this metric to in the next twelve months (M).
  3. Pick the smallest percentage (P) such that, if your company owned that much of the metric, you’d be the undisputed leader.
  4. The market size is about M/P.

For example, you are aiming at a monthly subscription run rate of $500K/mo in a year. In your market being the leader means owning 50% of the market. For your company to be doing $500K/mo ($6M/yr) in subscriptions with 50% market share, it must be operating in a market that is about $12M in a year.

Seems small, no? Just like any one gold mine may be small in proportion to the gold reserves in an entire mountain. More on this line of thinking in Geoffrey Moore’s and Steve Blank’s work.

What if you find (or think you have found) a much larger, homogeneous market where you have good product/market fit? Well, you can do one of three things:

  1. You can tighten your market definition. If you don’t know how to pick, make some hypotheses and test them. You are likely to find a sub-segment where you have lower cost of customer acquisition (COCA) and perhaps higher lifetime value (LTV) because of better product-market fit.
  2. You can consider ways of boosting the growth rate of the company, easing the critical constraints: hiring more people, raising more capital, partnering with or acquiring companies, etc. You’ll do this because you want to have a dominant share of this market.
  3. You can choose to not own a dominant share of the market. The question then is, who will?
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Ten rules for better founding teams

Previously, I highlighted the legal aspects of structuring founder agreements. These are indeed very important but it is even more important to underscore that any agreement can be modified if the parties involved agree to do so. Therefore, a non-confrontational, positive approach is always the best way for a founding team to approach removing a co-founder. It is better to err on the side of being reasonable and generous to make things simple, quick and not get into legal disputes.

My key message to founding teams is the following: think very carefully about how you want to distribute decision-making power amongst the team, especially regarding key issues such as CEO and board roles. Just as I prefer balanced, independent boards where no one person or entity exerts too much control, I prefer companies where no one founder can force or block key votes against the wishes of the rest of the founding team and investors.

In many cases of misbehaving founders weak boards and weak investors are to blame also. A couple of months ago I had lunch with an exec at a large startup in Boston. We talked about his absentee CEO who spent most his time in another country. Growth in the company had gotten sluggish because of lack of investment in R&D and the go-to-market organization. The CEO, who is well-known in the community as a control freak, doesn’t want to increase the burn because that will require a financing. A financing will bring his ownership under the threshold that allows him to block his replacement by the board. He’s made money in the past so now he’d rather be king. What surprised me about the story is that experienced VCs from two well-known firms twice didn’t confront this situation. For two rounds they were enamored-enough to invest in the company despite the unreasonable degree of control the CEO had. Now they have so much capital into the company, they can’t risk abandoning it.

If you want to build a better-balanced founding team where no one founder is irreplaceable, you may want to consider the following list of ten guidelines:

  1. Clear agreements. Have clear verbal or, better, written agreements pre-incorporation. While agreements can be adjusted later, doing so typically requires consent and that potentially gives too much power to individuals.
  2. Founder drag-along. I haven’t seen this used in practice prior to financings but it seems that a reasonable approach to (1) would be to give the founding team an ability to drag along a reluctant co-founder.
  3. Vesting. With the exceptions of the investor and certain types of advisor roles as discussed in my previous post, everyone else on the founding team should vest. (Here are my thoughts on the best vesting schedule for founders.)
  4. Consider a vesting cliff. Standard founder agreements don’t have vesting cliffs for founders. This assumes that co-founders know each other well and have experience working with each other. That’s not always the case.
  5. Align vesting with value-add. Typical founder vesting schedules are time-based. That works well for full-time employees but is a poor fit in the case of part-timers with flexible involvement or situations where there is a non-linear value contribution. I face this in my FastIgnite work frequently as I deliver much of my value up-front.
  6. Understand voting thresholds. As you divvy up ownership amongst co-founders, think about what that will look like under a range of cap table scenarios given a financing. Be careful of any founder getting too much power.
  7. Be careful with big severance packages. I saw a bootstrapped company looking for funding where the lead founder had written his agreement such that if he was terminated he could call “the loans” he’d given to the company during the bootstrapping period. With interest, it was over $1M. Also, don’t go for big vesting acceleration on termination without cause.
  8. Don’t give board seats by name. Same message as above—don’t design inflexibility in unless you have a darn good reason. Question the balls of investors who want in the deal so much they are willing to go along with highly unusual board or voting structures.
  9. Alternate founders on the board. Even if one founder, through her shareholding, can ensure a board seat all the time, you may want to discuss options that involve term limits or some type of representation alternation with your co-founders. In one of my investments, two co-founders alternated every few months. It worked well.
  10. Strong, independent boards. There would be fewer scandals on Wall Street if more public companies had strong, truly independent boards. In startups, it is relatively common for investors or a founder or the CEO to bring a “friend” on the board. Nothing wrong with that if the friend cares about the company first and foremost.

Let me know what you think about these suggestions in the comments or on Twitter @simeons.

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